The rider transfer market for 2024 is continuing to hold sway also in the Red Bull Ring paddock, even if it will still take some time before all the pieces of the mosaic fall into place. One piece, however, might slot into place as early as these days. Tony Arbolino is in fact very close to renewing with Marc VDS, his current team.
For the rider from Garbagnate, a window had opened for a move to MotoGP on the Gresini Ducati, but the talks stalled and at this point his most probable option is to stay in Moto2. The Ajo team had also contacted him to have him in the intermediate class in 2024, with the possibility of a move to the premier class in 2025. However, Tony preferred to stay in the team that trusted him in the past and with which he is fighting for the championship.
With Arbolino in Moto2, the Gresini Ducati is now up for grabs for two riders: Jake Dixon and Franco Morbidelli. The former has the backing of Dorna, which is negotiating the renewal of TV rights in Great Britain and has every interest in having a British rider in MotoGP. The second would like to rebuild his career on a Desmosedici, but it's not easy, also because the choice doesn't depend on him.
In truth, everything revolves around the Bezzecchi-Zarco situation. If it depends on the team in which the two riders will race, the other seats will fill up as a result.
There are basically two options. If Marco were to stay in VR46 and Johann in Pramac, then Dixon would have a very good chance of taking the vacant seat in Gresini and Morbidelli would only be left with the LCR Honda. If instead Bezzecchi were to go to Pramac, at that point Franco would be the ideal candidate to replace him in VR46, with Zarco going to Cecchinello.
These, in short, are the possible scenarios on the horizon, but as we said it will probably not be decided quickly. It might take a few more weeks, perhaps up to Misano, for the picture to take on its definitive shape.