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Need we point this out? Kevin Schwantz was right: "only Marquez can beat Marquez."
A comment that the former world champion - only one title to his credit precisely because he always raced unsparingly - uttered not after, but before the Austin GP. Like recognizes like, hence a judgment that after the unfortunate outcome of Marc's race sounds almost like a prophecy.
We used the word bad luck, but it's not the right one: it's not bad luck, but a mistake that when you race at that level, at those limits, is always around the corner. After all, Marc Marquez in these first three Grands Prix of the season annihilated the competition, and even yesterday - and we will explain why - but his opponents today can breathe a sigh of relief: as long as Marc races like this, the possibility of beating him will exist. Because the world championship is won by accumulating points, not by winning Grands Prix. All you need to do for confirmation is ask Pecco Bagnaia, who beat Jorge Martin 11-3 in 2024 but lost the title.
Who is the stronger of the two? Well, that's an insulting question: the world champion for this year is Jorge Martin, but then you have to explain why in all recent polls the most remembered rider is always Kevin Schwantz, who won only one title, in the tragic year of Wayne Rainey's accident, and not, for example, Eddie Lawson, a four-time world champion. A rider who was always able to go 99.99 percent of the way. Never beyond that. Awesome Lawson. Steady Eddie.
I loved them both, sportingly. Perhaps precisely because they understood the race in opposite ways: always on the edge of the limit the Californian, always beyond the Texan. Well, Marquez in this goes beyond: for him the limit just doesn't exist. Let's see why.
Marc finished lap 8 of a 19-lap Grand Prix with a lead of 2.287s over Pecco. Bagnaia had been behind him since lap 4, after passing his brother Alex. At that time his disadvantage from the Spaniard, his teammate, was 1.382s. By lap 5 it had risen to 1.663s, by lap 6 to 1.911s, by lap 7 to 2.220s and by lap 8 to 2.287s.
It should be noted that both riders, Marc and Pecco, set their fastest lap on the 7th lap: 2'02.221s Marc, 2'02.530s Pecco. A difference of +0.309s.
Can it be said that Marquez, as soon as he realized that he no longer had his brother behind him, beat hard on the anvil to knock out his rival? Well, for sure from lap 4 to lap 5 he lowered his time by half a second! Nevertheless he was in control since his rival while pushing hard had continued to fall behind. But after that lap 7 in which they had both assayed their opponent's consistency, they had, so to speak, put their minds at ease by lapping in roughly similar times. As they say in jargon: he had 'sized him up'. Then, sure enough, there was the crash at Turn 4, a fast right, the start of the snake for cutting too much on the inside kerb.
Neil Hodgson, on TNT Sports, estimated the error at three inches, something like 7 cm, more or less. Not a few, and the pictures show it clearly. An error in evaluation? Definitely. No excuse. You can see how on the previous lap Marquez was further outside the curb, even though he had passed over it anyway.
Marc, for that matter, did not absolve himself from any blame: "clearly I lost, I made a mistake and the only thing left for me to do is to apologize," he said, adding, "sometimes it's thousandths of a second, it's drops in tension, drops in concentration. But I was very focused, I was very clear about what I had to do in the race, but it was when I cut the kerb a little more that I lost it. That was one of my strengths on this circuit. It means taking risks, but maybe it was wet, but I had already cut it for several laps. I crashed, though. But yesterday I was not Superman and today is not a disaster. It's just a mistake, you have to learn from it. The positive thing? That even though I made a very bad mistake, we are second in the championship, one point behind the leader."
But then he noted, "I used up the points margin I had in the championship in the worst way, in my easiest race."
So Marc Marquez - and many had been waiting for this moment - was finally beaten, because he crashed and as Phil Read used to say "keep it on the rubber," you have to keep the tires stuck to the asphalt. But also not, because he was basically the fastest over the course of the weekend. Pole, Sprint, even in the Grand Prix he appeared uncatchable for everyone. Francesco Bagnaia admitted it, but it's also true that races are like that: you have to finish them and if instead of crossing the finish line you... end up in the run-off areas, it's not good.
Can we say at the end of this review that Pecco pushed Marc beyond his limit by inviting him to make a mistake? Sure, we can, but he himself knows for having been there remembering the crash in the Barcelona Sprint of 2024, moreover on the last lap, that he did not and in fact at the end of the race he admitted it. We can add that on that occasion Pecco had Aleix Espargarò behind him and the two were lapping in the same times.
On this occasion, however, the gap had been increasing and then it was stable. Of course, then, we would have to see how the challenge would evolve: it was just halfway through the Grand Prix. In short, one can say everything and the opposite of everything. What is certain is that Marc's mistake will definitely make the Qatar Grand Prix more interesting! But Marc has to be careful: this is not a world championship in the style of the 'Fantastic Four,' when one of the protagonists could even finish fourth. Instead, this is a two-man championship. It is a mano a mano, as Spanish bullfighting enthusiasts would say. Maybe you can insert Alex, now and then, but here mistakes are going to cost dearly, every time 25 points! It might have been less, but then Ducati should equip its Desmosedicis with sturdier footpegs! What a possible comeback we missed!
If I were Marc, I would make a phone call to Lawson....
