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The MotoGP rider market is moving under the radar this season and without too much haste, at least for the moment. One reason is that the factory teams are practically all already sorted, with contracts signed until the end of 2024. With one exception: Yamaha. While Fabio Quartararo is in fact locked in, Franco Morbidelli's place is not, as he has an agreement that expires at the end of the year.
On other occasions, there would have been a queue for that seat, but now there isn’t that much interest in getting on an M1 that's struggling to be competitive. Morbidelli isn't doing particularly well, but neither is his teammate and for the other riders, getting on Iwata's blue bike does not appear to be one of the best possibilities.
Paolo Ciabatti, Ducati's sporting director, summed up the concept best, when commenting on the rumours that Yamaha would be interested in Martin: "Jorge likes to win". On the Desmosedici (official even if it’s of the Pramac satellite team) he has this possibility, on the M1 nobody knows. Another name sometimes associated with the Japanese company is that of Bezzecchi. Obviously for Marco, moving to a factory team would be an important step forward for his career, but once again it's the competitiveness of the bike that leaves him in doubt. Not to mention that in VR46 he is at home in every sense and he could easily decide to stay there for another year.
One option for Yamaha would be to bet on a youngster, a rookie. Here all eyes turn to Moto2, where there are at least three interesting names, even if two seem to have been eliminated from the picture. The first is Ai Ogura, who refused a move to MotoGP last year. If he decides to make the leap in 2024, the place he would take would be the one that Nakagami now occupies in LCR, who in fact has renewed for just one year.
Then there is Acosta. The fact that he would go up to MotoGP next year seemed a foregone conclusion, but that might not be the case. Because KTM has learnt from the mistakes of the past, when it promoted its riders too quickly and then burned them up (Raul Fernandez and Remy Gardner are the last to have undergone this treatment). Pedro with his 19th birthday he will celebrate in a few days’ time is very young and in no hurry to step up. Augusto Fernandez would be an 'expendable' pawn, but all in all he's not performing badly in the premier class and could have another chance.
So that means that Arbolino remains. Tony is a great friend of Quartararo, Fabio would like him as a teammate, but there are better alternatives on the horizon for him too. His manager Carlo Pernat already has clear ideas in the event of a move to the premier class and is aiming for the Gresini team. There Di Giannantonio's seat is bit uncertain and Fabio’s future is at risk. For Arbolino, going to the Italian team would be to retrace the path that has already worked with Bastianini.
These are the key points to sort out, then the rest will slot into place accordingly. Especially if Yamaha decides to interrupt its rapport with Morbidelli, because a possible move of Martin to blue would have a domino effect. In fact, in addition to the riders already mentioned, Zarco and Marini also have to renew their contracts.
