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Everything changed in a few moments, those of Marc Marquez's crash in the Mandalika warm-up: from a squad undergoing reconstruction, the Repsol Honda team went back to being a team desperately looking for an alternative, possibly a victorious one, to the strongest rider of the last ten years.
It’s going to be a difficult task however because 'Magic Marc' alone in MotoGP since 2013 has picked up 59 victories, 99 podiums, 62 poles and 59 fastest laps out of 142 starts, as well as six world titles.
In recent years, moreover, HRC has shredded two good riders: Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo, not to mention the short stay of Alex Marquez. In addition, if you look at its history, with the exceptions of Alex Criville in 1999 and Nicky Hayden in 2006, two lucky albeit well-deserved titles, the Honda has shown its true colours above all in the hands of exceptional riders: from Freddie Spencer to Wayne Gardner's only title, including Eddie Lawson's smash-and-grab raid in 1989, to the five-year domination of Mick Doohan and then Valentino Rossi.
After that there were the years of Casey Stoner, another phenomenon and, now Marc Marquez.
Honda has never raised a young champion within its top team. Sometimes, as in the case of Criville, it found itself with a world champion when its true champion was on his way out, others as in the case of Nicky it was able to take advantage of a series of coincidences, but Doohan, Rossi, Stoner and Marquez - to mention just the recent ones - were champions who immediately took control of the team.
This has always been the secret: Fast Freddie with Erv Kanemoto, imposed on HRC their vision of what a racing bike should be and when Honda gave them the futuristic first NSR with an under-tank engine they trashed it in an moment returning to the three-cylinder NSR.
And what about the arrival of Lawson, again with Erv the wizard, who revolutionized the engine and chassis of Wayne Gardner's fast but unrideable bike to then rebuild the vehicle that dominated for five seasons in the hands of Mighty Mick?
Honda’s two paths: young riders or experienced champions
For this reason, today Honda has only two paths ahead of it, aware by now that Marquez, in the best of worlds, is in any case at the end of his career: change strategy and help grow a young rider, or follow the old path and try to pull out another ace from up its sleeve.
In the first case, the path is young riders who have not yet fully emerged on the track, with the only names being those of Enea Bastianini and Jorge Martin. The former, currently in the Gresini-Ducati team, is more reliable, perhaps, but less explosive; the latter, today with Pramac-Ducati, perhaps even too aggressive. All this together with HRC's difficulty in poaching them from Ducati. A task that will perhaps be easier when it comes to Jorge, who would end up in a Catalan team, more complicated for Enea, cunningly assisted by Carlo Pernat who would prefer to see his protege in Ducati and who sees Martin's opportunity as a chance for Bastianini to finish alongside Bagnaia.
Then there are riders like Raoul Fernandez and Pedro Acosta, but we still see them too immature to have the Repsol Honda team on their shoulders.
The song of the Honda siren is the rustle of banknotes
Instead, if the alternative is to aim for a crowned champion, there are only two names on the market: Fabio Quartararo, 2021 world champion with Yamaha and Joan Mir, the 2020 world champion with Suzuki. Two fast riders who know how to be settle for what they get and are able to make the most of the circumstances.
To poach them respectively from Yamaha and Suzuki, however, they will have to deal with their wallets and with politics, because Dorna would undoubtedly prefer that the official manufacturers not lose their champions.
Honda will be able to tempt both, from an economic point of view, but it will not be an easy task. And even Suzuki, which seems to be the weak link in the chain, can now count on the shrewd Livio Suppo, who knows the Honda environment well and who has already played it safe by stating that he wants to reconfirm his current pair of riders.
Worst case scenario: the retirement of Marc Marquez
So it’s a difficult task for Honda, which would even become at the limits of what is possible if Marc Marquez decides that the time has come to hang up his helmet. In this case, in fact, in Tokyo they would find themselves at a crossroads: starting over with Pol Espargarò, whom the absence of Marquez does not help, because he could remain as a second rider with a winning and in-shape Marc, or rebuild the entire team from scratch.
This is what happens when the army is led by an aggressive but not very thoughtful manager like Alberto Puig. Who often gets carried away by his character to act on impulse and on the basis of likes and dislikes, rather than with reasoning.
But Alberto is a fighter and resilience in the event of adversity can lead to unexpected results. Never write off the colossus Honda. We are about to see a new rise in the costs of the rider market. With all due respect to those managers who decided to solve the problem by banning Ducati’s 'lowering device'. A mechanical device. It would be funny… if certain managers didn't make you cry instead.
