There isn't a single Ducati rider who doesn't dream of testing the new Panigale V4 with its bi-arm swingarm. The bike that the Borgo Panigale-based manufacturer will be using in its assault on World Superbike in two seasons. But will the prospect of competing with the new Rossa be enough to convince Alvaro Bautista and Ducati to renew their partnership again for 2026?
It may seem premature to start wondering this at the end of 2024, but the question arises when thinking about the year that awaits the Spanish rider and his team. After a season that became a nightmare for the two-time Superbike champion, things may not improve in 2025. At least not on paper.
Ballast still weighs on Bautista's future
Although he'll be appearing at the start of the championship in top physical shape - with no more of the after-effects of his injury from Jerez in November 2023, which greatly affected him last winter - Bautista will still have to deal with other problems that have haunted him this year, starting with the ballast. This contributed significantly in preventing him from regaining the feeling, confidence, and ease of riding he dominated the World Championship with in the previous two years.
Despite Ducati's attempts to appeal this decision, there won't be any intervention on the regulations front, where the minimum bike+rider weight limit, badly tolerated by the 40-year-old, is going to remain in force, like in 2024. And Bautista is the only one who's affected by this regulation. This disadvantage is definitely significant, considering that the Bologna-based manufacturer will hardly be able to come to the rescue of its rider with some new innovation, since most of their resources will logically be directed towards developing the 2026 bike and not a Panigale that has now reached the end of its journey.
Opponents increase load
And, as if all this weren't enough, Alvaro's life will be further complicated by a swarm of opponents who are more intent than ever on not letting him off the hook. With a first title as a BMW rider and a second one in the Superbike, Toprak Razgatlioglu will be starting the new season with the clear intention of, once again, rewriting the streak of consecutive successes marked by one rider in a single season, while the (no-longer) rookie Nicolò Bulega will unabashedly aspire towards confirming himself as Ducati's first spearhead, after having accumulated experience in the SBK premier class.
However, the two great rivals of last season won't be the only ones trying to demolish the Iberian rider on a psychological level, increasing the weight on his shoulders. Having seen their dreams of joining the factory team in 2025 fade, Andrea Iannone and Danilo Petrucci will do everything they can to try to steal his place next year. Not to mention revenge-seeking riders like Jonathan Rea and Scott Redding, or loose cannons in Bimonta, all eager to get their wheels in front of those of the Ducati champion.
It's all in Alvaro's hands
Bautista will have lots of challenges ahead of him, but beware of making the mistake of considering him a goner. The cards on the table may prospect a season with a dangerously similar trend than the previous, but they don't take into account one big variable: the Ducati rider himself.
What the Spanish rider really needs, in order to raise his head again after a year spent on the chase, isn't an ace to pull out of his sleeve but a reset: forget what he did until 2023 and start over from the references and data accumulated last year. A reset that he already began to implement in the Jerez tests in October. His goal is that of finding a new direction to follow, right from the first races of 2025, one that will allow him to ride with the competitiveness he had in Aragon.
Easy to say, we'll see how much he'll do. Everything will depend on Alvaro, the architect of his own destiny, as perhaps never before.