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In the end it's all about numbers. In fact, of just one number: the one next to one's name at the end of the season. Every sport has its own rules, but the only law in a championship is to score more points than others, no matter how or why. Winning more, making fewer mistakes, the maths of champions is very simple in its outcome.
With two GPs left in the season, Martin has accumulated 453 points, against 436 for Bagnaia. The two rivals arrived at those results in very different ways. The bottom line is that Pecco has won more but also made more mistakes, while Jorge has made consistency his ally, as well as speed.
The world champion has won 9 GPs out of the 18 he has disputed this season (exactly half), taking the podium 14 times; the Spaniard of the Pramac team has picked up the same number of top-3 finishes as his opponent, but just one-third as many victories, 3. If only the Sunday races were counted, Bagnaia would be ahead with 320 points against 301.
The introduction of the Sprints changed the rules of the game and it is on Saturday that Martin has made the difference, or where the Italian was inferior. The Spaniard has won 6 sprint races, as has Pecco, but has been on the podium an impressive 14 times, while Bagnaia has stopped at 9. So Saturday's score sees the Pramac team rider with a clear advantage with 152 points compared to 116 for the official team rider.
Clearly, mistakes have played their part. Looking at the total number of crashes, Jorge has made far more mistakes, ending up on the ground 14 times, compared to Pecco's 7. The figure, taken out of context, however, says little because the problem is that Bagnaia always ended up on the ground in the race, unlike Martin. In fact, Pecco's zeros (the dropped bars) are a whopping 7, while Jorge's are only 4 (to which one could add the Misano mistake, when he went in to change tires and finished 15th).
The situation could not be clearer and, clearly, the rider left biting his hands is Bagnaia, who has not been able to make good in the standings his dominance on the top step of the podium. "I've won nine GPs, 15 races counting Sprints, but it matters little because the important thing is the championship," he reflected after his success in Thailand, knowing that winning is now not enough for him. The Spaniard's haul of 17 points would in fact allow him to become champion by always finishing 2nd in the remaining races, even with Pecco finishing 1st. In Sepang, moreover, Martin will already have the first match-point: if he gains at least 21 points on Bagnaia, the title will be his. A very difficult feat, but not impossible.
On the other hand, the reigning world champion will have to hope on some external 'help' to keep the number 1 on his fairing. As mentioned, winning will not be enough for him; he will have to hope that some rider will get ahead of Martin. Team orders are out of the question and allies are scarce. Marquez and Bastianini are vying for 3rd place in the World Championship, and neither has ever had any eyes on Pecco. Morbidelli, Pecco's colleague in the VR46 Riders Academy, is Jorge's teammate. That would leave only Bezzecchi, who, however, has rarely fought for the top positions, those where they consistently gravitate to two challengers.
All that remains for Bagnaia is to win, and hope that Lady Luck smiles at him.
