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The MotoGP 2025 rider market is now in its final throes. Today came the confirmation, which was abundantly in the air, of Fabio Di Giannantonio in VR46 for the next two seasons, with a direct contract with Ducati and the possibility of having both in 2025 and 2026 the third and coveted official bike from Borgo Panigale. The bikes left free and without a rider yet have become very few indeed, so let's analyze the situation team by team to better understand the possible scenarios.
In the illustration that opens this piece there are obviously names that have not yet been officially confirmed, but it is very plausible that this is the face of the 2025 grid.
VR46 - After Diggia, Morbidelli is on his way.
Let's start with VR46, which after signing Fabio, must make official the other rider on the team for the second Ducati GP bike. Once again, however, there are no plausible surprises on the horizon, because that bike belongs to Franco Morbidelli. Both Morbidelli and the team have sent messages of pure love to each other, and indeed there is no more logical scenario than to see Morbidelli on the free VR46 Racing Team bike. After the signing of Di Giannantonio, the last missing piece has probably also been cleared up, so there will probably be an announcement soon.
With VR46 locked in, the Ducati Factory team fully booked and Alex Marquez already confirmed in Gresini Racing, the Borgo Panigale factory does not have many options to place Fermin Aldeguer, a rider put under contract directly by the factory at the beginning of 2024 for the two-year period 2025/26. Fermin will become Alex Marquez's teammate and will have at his disposal a GP24 exactly like Alex. Probably at the time of signing, Aldeguer dreamed of arriving directly in Pramac with a Factory bike, but for now he will have to cut his teeth and honestly could not ask for better for his debut season in the top class.
Ducati is thus fully booked, but three other manufacturers are not at all. Honda has confirmed this season's official pair by extending the agreement with Joan Mir, who will partner with Luca Marini. Johann Zarco will continue his adventure in LCR, while the name of the second rider is still to be decided. We are talking about the bike that Taka Nakagami brings to the track under Idemitsu colors and it seemed that it was destined for compatriot Ai Ogura. But the Japanese rider who is shining in Moto2 has decided to take a different path, having already refused two years ago to make his MotoGP debut with Honda, perhaps fearing that he would burn himself out riding probably the most hostile bike in the paddock at the moment. Lucio Cecchinello has confirmed that there will be an Asian rider, for obvious sponsor reasons, and the most credited name at the moment is that of Somkiat Chantra, a loose-wristed Thai who could get the big break.
Honda LCR - Ogura was predestined, Chantra ahead for the chance of a lifetime.
It is not certain, however, that Taka Nakagami will be sidelined, because as much as he has not been able to shine for several seasons, he still has plenty of experience riding the RCV and can help above all to notch up the miles on the track, something perhaps much more complex for a rookie. It seems, though, that Taka's MotoGP adventure is at an end, so the chances of seeing him on the track again in MotoGP in 2025 seem very low, probably close to 20 percent at best.
Yamaha also has its fair share of catches, because after signing Quartararo and Rins, it has to sort out Paolo Campinoti's team, which will take the other two M1s to the track next season. The most credited name at the moment is that of Miguel Oliveira, who has already picked up the endorsement of Fabio Quartararo. Oliveira's confirmation should come in the next few weeks, while the name of his teammate may need a bit more time. The point is that while when it was with Ducati, Pramac had the task of bringing up young riders to be perhaps passed on to the factory team, at Yamaha this aspect will initially be put aside for other priorities.
Indeed, a lot of work is needed to make the M1 competitive again, and an experienced rider can undoubtedly help much more than a rookie. The first name that answers to this identikit and is still free is obviously that of Jack Miller. The Australian has confirmed that he currently has no offers on the table to race next season and a Yamaha M1 in Pramac would be Jack's only chance to stay in the paddock. He has the experience to help develop the bike, he has the right passport, because if he doesn't get a bike there would be no Australian in MotoGP, and that's a scenario that Dorna doesn't like at all. He has a very good relationship with Campinoti, as he has already been with the Italian team and did well enough to deserve the Ducati Factory. However, there is the current of thought that would like to see a young rider on Pramac's second Yamaha, and Fabio Quartararo is pushing for this to be Tony Arbolino, a great friend of the Frenchman.
Yamaha Pramac - Miller's experience or the explosiveness of a rookie?
But he is not the only young rider in contention, for there would also be Sergio Garcia and Alonso Lopez...in short, it is a matter of deciding between experience and prospects first, and then sounding out the names available. Perhaps Pramac is precisely the team that currently appears most in the balance as far as the rider market is concerned; perhaps it will take a few more weeks to untangle the knots.
The last free bike is Trackhouse's, as Raul Fernandez has been confirmed by the American team. Market rumors, which have gone around feverishly finding several confirmations, have Ai Ogura as virtually certain to race for Aprilia and Trackhouse in 2025. An entirely unexpected name, since having to poach in Moto2, everyone was convinced that Joe Roberts was the rider for that bike, especially given his passport. Instead, it seems that the Japanese rider is in pole position to make his MotoGP debut on the Italian bike and in an American team. Ogura is undoubtedly a very talented rider, who after the bad injury he suffered in 2023 is getting back to fully fighting for the title this season. Perhaps the announcement will come as early as the Red Bull Ring.
This is the current state of the art in the 2025 rider transfer market, but it is still possible to imagine surprises destined to upset what today seem almost like certainties. Certainly to outline the starting grid 100% for next season we will need a few more weeks, probably in Austria a few more boxes will be settled but it is likely that we will have to wait until Misano to have a complete picture.
