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Now that the curtain has come down on 2023, the countdown is getting underway for the 2024 MotoGP season which will take its first steps at the Sepang tests at the beginning of February, in just over a month’s time. There are several new aspects and rider changes in the teams this year, first and foremost that of Marc Marquez on the Gresini team's Ducati.
The news of the breakup of a historic partnership with Honda in Indonesia, suspected and expected by some observers, was hushed up by many just a few months ago as an impossible star alignment. The gravity of the movement of the "star" Marquez has thus also influenced other galaxies, such as that of VR46 with Marini who, despite having announced his renewal in Misano, could not resist the temptation of a two-year contract on the seat of the golden wing Honda now left free by the Spaniard.
So, it’s all set and done then? Not exactly. While it is true that the 2024 season has yet to begin, the 2023 season that has just ended has created a singular precedent, with managers obliged to protect their riders race by race from the pitfalls of a transfer market that now more than ever seems to know no limits.
While it is true that there have been other precedents in the past, just think of Vinales who in 2021 switched from Yamaha to Aprilia during the ongoing season, never have the rules of engagement seemed to evolve at such a frenetic pace. The risk now more than ever could be to see teams abandoned by disgruntled riders or riders left without a ride more and more often, as if the added stress of doubling the number of races (thanks to the sprints, ed.) wasn't already enough.
In fact, in 2024 many of the contracts of the riders currently on the grid will expire, and you can be sure that the sparks of the rider market this season will dwarf those you could admire in the sky during the New Year's Eve celebrations.
Sparks that will likely ignite long before mid-season, perhaps even after the first races, with the teams competing for the big names on the grid, first Marc Marquez who already demonstrated at the Valencia tests that he knows how to adapt quickly to the Ducati by setting the fourth quickest time.
The first tests, as we know, can be taken with a pinch of salt, and although the Spaniard was unable to speak to the press, his smile immortalized by the cameras in the Gresini garage leaves little room for doubt as to the fact that his competitive ardour has anything but died out in recent years.
The climate of expectations and the prospects of results surrounding the Spaniard will thus contribute to creating the ideal buffet for Marc who will be able to boast various options at the end of his contract with the Gresini team. It's certainly too early to talk about it, and a lot will also depend on what happens on the track once the championship has started, but let's try to examine some of them.
The prestige of the official Ducati with the doubts regarding Red Bull/Monster
Love cannot be commanded, it is often said, which for a rider translates into the feeling with his bike. When that feeling is missing, the magic fades and we start looking "elsewhere", to be understood as other motorcycles. A key factor could also have been the presence of his brother Alex in Gresini, but the fact is that for Marc his arrival on a Ducati had all the connotations of a love story. Honda believed in him in moments of difficulty but he chose the fastest red, and in this case, we are always referring to motorcycles.
We will only know the outcome of this new partnership later, even if there are a lot of expectations surrounding the Spaniard and they are quite high. If everything went swimmingly with the GP23, it would be difficult to imagine that the Spaniard would not be able to aspire to the official team, he would obtain the top in terms of competitiveness, Ducati would gain in prestige and sponsors, even if it might create some discontent, especially among the other Ducati riders. However, he would risk seeing his historic sponsor Red Bull leave, as Ducati already has the Monster brand on its fairings unless there are changes among the sponsors as well. But can you see Marquez alongside Bagnaia?
KTM on the hunt for the Phenomenon, with the agreement of Dani Pedrosa
Ducati is not the only force in the field however: the Mattighofen company has long deployed all its firepower in terms of development, and after a modest start a few years ago, it is inexorably approaching the maximum level in terms of performance.
After having signed several talented names from the rival teams, the Austrian company is still missing the spearhead, the centre-forward, the benchmark rider. While Binder proved to be their best-performing rider in 2023, fourth at the end of the championship behind the Ducati trio, with Miller not standing out this year and two growing talents in the bank like Acosta and Fernandez, a Marc Marquez who among other things already wears Red Bull would be a sensational transfer move.
The rumours that the Spaniard was eyeing KTM and admiring the fervent development that was missing at Honda have never died out, and the friendship with former rival Pedrosa, now their top test rider, would be an excellent bridge for a quick move for the Spaniard.
Nostalgia for Honda: you never forget your first love
Sport is all about performance, sure, but results are not always the only decisive elements. We can't get into the head of a rider, much less that of a multiple world champion like Marc Marquez, we can only try to imagine. Why, despite a still fresh breakup, would the Spaniard want to return to racing for the Japanese company?
There could be various reasons. One of these is certainly the human aspect, the emotional one, which goes beyond logic. It's what we could define as a "romantic" option if you like, for Marquez. He himself called his last tango on the RC213V a "goodbye", and there was no shortage of tears for what, in fact, is the bike that has represented a fundamental part of the Spaniard's racing career.
From the first titles won in 2013 and 2014, to the difficult years following his arm injury in 2020, Honda has never betrayed him. It is also predictable that the stalemate in which the Japanese manufacturer is currently going through will not last forever, and that the golden wing brand will know how and will want to react to the final defeat, represented by the Spaniard leaving. It is just a question of time therefore, short or long we cannot yet know, but returning to victory on the Honda would undoubtedly have enormous media implications, for the rider, for the team and for the whole sport in general.
Finally, even a reshuffle at management level could convince the phenomenon from Cervera to go back on his steps, in fact it is no secret that Puig’s management has raised more than a few eyebrows over the years.
Ultimately, this 2024 promises to be highly adrenaline-filled both on and off the circuits. With Marquez's decisions that will be able to influence the entire paddock and many talented names – above all Quartararo, who will soon be free of his contract - the excitement will be palpable from the very first races.
The performance of the riders will therefore be fundamental right from the start, with Ducati now becoming the "enemy to beat" for the rival manufacturers, and who also thanks to the new system of blatantly anti-Ducati concessions will certainly not stand by idly and watch the Borgo Panigale manufacturer win a third consecutive title without trying to tear off the "wings" of its opponents in terms of rider contracts.
