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MotoGP will resume next week in Austria and it will do so between two numbers: 48 and 59. These are not the numbers on the fairings of two riders, but the points gap that Marquez has over his closest – and most dangerous – rivals. A nice bounty, when the season is at the exact midway point with 9 races left to ride.
Unless we want to be hypocritical, we must admit that Marc already has one hand on his third trophy in the premier class. With all the unknowns (and incantations) of the season, because it is difficult to remember a season like this one, plagued with so many mistakes just around the corner, when it isn’t the weather or mechanical troubles reshuffling the deck.
The statistics, however, are on the little devil’s side. On this table, we have summarized the trend of the last 14 seasons (since the MotoGP championship was established), indicating the points difference between the championship leader and the closest contender at mid-season and at the end of the season.
Upsets are not the norm and only twice has the mid-season championship leader not taken home the title. The last time was quite recent. Last year, Rossi led Lorenzo by 13 points after the Sachsenring race, but then lost the title by 5 points. Lorenzo was also a protagonist in the other occasion, but this time in his favour: in 2008 the Doctor made up the 4 points he needed to catch Pedrosa (who was injured) in the second half of the season, managing to win the championship with a huge gap.
Besides the seasons mentioned above, no one in MotoGP has ever successfully come back in the second part of the season. Some have come close, like Pedrosa and Lorenzo in 2013 who, after injuries, closed the gap to just 4 points behind Marquez or Rossi once again, in 2006, when he lost the championship to Hayden in the last race. As for the rest, the statistics say that the rider who is in the lead stays there.
There is another statistic that plays against Valentino as well: the last rider who managed to win the title with three zeros in the standings was Doohan in 1998. That year, Mick had three zeros on the sheets (as many as Rossi has now) but he succeeded in winning 8 of the 14 scheduled races and in other 3 he finished second.
Must we simply accept a championship that has already been decided? In truth, never before like this year has uncertainty reigned so sovereign. The changes in the rules and especially the Michelin tyres have held surprises in practically every race. What’s more, now more than ever has there been such strength in unity. If the Yamaha duo should return to superiority, Jorge and Valentino could scrape together important points to close the gap behind Marquez.
At that point, anything could happen, even if Marc is demonstrating enviable lucidity, understanding when and how much to risk.
Maybe everything has not yet been written, nevermind the numbers and statistics.
