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If we were to rely on the Malaysia and Australia tests, we would say that this season will be a private affair between Marquez and Viñales. The two Spaniards most definitely ran the games, both in terms of pure performance sprints and demonstrating longevity over race distance.
The Honda is an older relative of the RC213V that began 2016 with a limp, now racing more confidently with its new engine and not just with Marc. Pedrosa and Crutchlow are pleased with the new bike and their times are there to confirm it. Yamaha also seems to have corrected its problems and in Maverick’s hands it is flying.
Seen from this angle, the picture seems to depict an exclusive battle between the two Spaniards, but we need to zoom out and look at the big picture. On the sides we can catch a glimpse of Rossi and the Reds, protagonists who do not like to play second fiddle. For both, the tests in Qatar that start on Friday afternoon and run through Sunday will be fundamental, maybe even the most important ones.
In Sepang, Valentino was not too far behind the leaders, but at Phillip Island (except for the first day) the gap had increased. A few mistakes on which way to go, a bit of fatigue and the Australian tests concluded with some doubts and a drop in the standings.
If we weren’t talking about the Doctor, it could be seen as half disastrous. However, Rossi is well aware of what first place is worth in a winter test – little to nothing – and he knows how to work on a bike that he has known from its birth. For this reason, his failing marks were suspended whilst awaiting the make-up exam at Losail.
The same is true for Ducati, which was very fast in Malaysia with riders and tester (whose surname is Stoner). At Phillip Island, however, the Desmosedici had taken a step backward and - as everyone pointed out - the lack of winglets had an impact.
The reason, therefore - setting aside Lorenzo’s apprenticeship period - is largely technical and in Bologna they have already taken counter measures. Because Ducati is the Manufacturer that had invested the most in the winglets and it is only logical that it would be the one to suffer the most from their being banned. There are, however, alternatives to the spoilers (Yamaha, Suzuki and Aprilia have already demonstrated them) and it is only a question of time before we see what dress Dall’Igna and his staff have prepared for the GP17.
However, the Qatar tests will be interesting for another reason that Rossi and the Reds have in common too: they are all very fast at Losail. In the last 4 years, Valentino has brought home a win and two second place finishes, Dovizioso has taken the top step in the last two editions and in 2015, Iannone completed the podium.
Doha is therefore not just any other track, but an ideal hunting ground. So the difficulties can and must be overcome on friendly asphalt, in order to begin the year on the right foot. Success will mean gaining trust and confidence, whereas failure will complicate things even further.
On Friday, the tests will begin at 2 PM GMT and they will end at 9 PM. Then the floodlights will be switched off over the Losail track and we will discover whether Valentino and Ducati will have seen the light.
